Wednesday, August 12, 2009

How to solve a probability problem

Probability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur or has occurred. In simple terms it refers to a chance. In mathematics we can see the concept has a given exact meaning in probability theory, that is used extensively in such areas of study as mathematics, science, statistic, science, and philosophy to draw conclusions about the likelihood of potential events and the underlying mechanics of complex systems.

Here is a simple example for you:

Question:

Assume that your friend, Omar, had two job interviews, and now estimates he has
a 40% chance of getting the first job, and also a 40% chance of getting each job.
What are his chances of getting at least one job offer?
What are his chances of getting neither job?
What are his chances of getting offered both jobs?

Answer:

Chances of getting each job = 40% = .4

So chances of not getting the jobs = 1- .4 = 6


Now chances of getting at least one job includes the

chances of getting any one job and chances of getting both.


Chances of getting any one job = 2x(.4x .6) = .48

Chances of getting both = .4x .4x = .16

So required probability = .48 + .16 = .64 or 64%

Now chances of getting neither job = 1 -chances of getting at least one job

= 1 - .64 = .36 or 36%

Chances of getting both jobs offered = .4 * .4 = .16 or 16%








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